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Rise In Population May Outsmart Sydney’s Housing Predictions

rise in populationIn an article I read on The Advisor, I found that in 20 years to come Sydney may need 100,000 more homes than previously predicted. This vindicates my conviction that 50,000 (stipulated some time ago) was a really conservative figure.

The NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure have now come to believe that in the next 2 decades, 1.5 million people will be added to the Sydney population and not 1.3 million. This extra 200,000 will have a relatively high percentage of baby boomers.

Baby Boomer generation may partly create the housing pressure

Now, the older generation lives mostly in two-people homes and this will push the need for houses even higher. Curtailed household sizes would mean that Sydney will need 100,000 and not 85,000 extra homes in times to come.

Sydney closing on Melbourne in terms of rise in population

Sydney was lagging behind Melbourne’s population growth rate for quite some time but it is rapidly closing on the heels of its “capital colleague” now. According to the article (and I ditto the opinion), the rise in population has a lot to do with birth rate and overseas migration.

How will population spread itself?

The upsurge in population will be uniformly spread across the inner city and fringe areas. Of late, Sydney has seen a turnaround in terms of the chronic housing shortage it has witnessed for long.

Housing figures to keep a tab on

This will come handy because population growth will demand 5,000 new homes each year. To match up to this figure, we will need to build roughly 32,500 dwellings per year, according to Mr. Chris Johnson, CEO of the Urban Taskforce.

A cause for concern is the abolition of Part 3A of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979, one that was responsible for about 12,000 housing approvals in Sydney.

You can read the original article here.

Greater life expectancy is behind the housing riddle

I think that we need to tread carefully on the Baby Boomer connect here. As we move ahead in time, we will keep registering lower mortality rates. Also, the average life expectancy is only going to increase from here.

What does all this mean? In my opinion, this implies a larger population of baby boomers (It only makes me happy that there will be more of them to bless us).

Now, the article has rightly pointed out that the elder citizens are generally residents of a 2-people household. This is likely to create greater housing pressure.

I think Subdividing and creating granny flats on existing properties can come as an aid at this time. By the way, population of Sydney might again beat predictions because interstate movement is likely to register unprecedented figures (who does not want to live in Sydney?), something that we haven’t budgeted for.

Do you find a reason to worry in Sydney’s population growth or is it along the expected lines?